Rebates · 3 min read

Should I Wait for Battery Prices to Drop?

Published 3 November 2026

Quick answer

Nobody can promise battery prices will fall, but the federal discount is scheduled to fall: from 6.8 STCs per usable kWh to 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and 5.2 on 1 July 2027. Waiting only pays if the price drops by more than the discount does, plus what you would have saved on power in the meantime.

Panda Power install in Sans Souci NSW: 12.42 kW solar + 33.28 kWh GoodWe battery — Our install in Sans Souci NSW

What do we actually know?

Two things are certain and published:

The discount steps down. The STC factor is 6.8 per usable kWh until 31 December 2026, 5.7 from 1 January 2027 and 5.2 from 1 July 2027, with further steps published to 2030.
The install date decides the rate. The date on your electrical compliance certificate sets the factor, not the date you sign.

What nobody knows is where battery prices will go. We won't guess, and you should be wary of anyone who does.

What does waiting cost?

Two things:

A smaller discount. The same battery earns fewer certificates after each step. A 16 kWh battery earns 103 STCs this year and 86 from January.
The power you buy while you wait. Every month without a battery is a month of buying evening power you could have stored.

For waiting to pay off, the price has to fall by more than both.

When does waiting make sense?

You're renovating, extending or moving soon.
Your switchboard or roof work is already planned.
Your usage is about to change, such as a new EV or pool, and you want to size for it.
You genuinely can't afford it right now. Finance is available for eligible NSW households, so ask.

How much time is left at the 6.8 rate?

The battery has to be installed and certified by 31 December 2026. December install slots are limited, so if you are planning to go ahead this year, start now. See how to make the 31 December deadline.

A real example

We installed 12.42 kW of Maxeon panels and a 33.28 kWh GoodWe battery in Sans Souci, under this year's rate.

Our honest advice

If a battery suits your home, waiting is a bet on prices against a discount that is already scheduled to fall. Request a proposal and we will show you the numbers for your home, so you can decide.

Related project

A real Panda Power install that shows this topic in practice.

Sans Souci NSW

12.42 kW solar + 33.28 kWh battery

GoodWe

View project →

What it costs

Home batteries from $6,999 to about $15,999

base prices after rebates, inc GST, as at October 2026

What affects the price: battery size, brand and inverter, whether you already have solar, backup wiring, and any additional work at your home.

Base price for a standard install, after government rebates, inc GST, as at October 2026. Additional work such as switchboard upgrades, three-phase changes or complex installs is reviewed and quoted separately.

Get a fixed quote → · See battery prices →

FAQs

Will battery prices go down?

We can't predict that, and we won't guess. What is known is the discount schedule, which steps down on set dates.

Does signing now lock in the current discount?

No. The rate depends on the date the battery is installed and certified, not when you sign.

Is it ever right to wait?

Yes, if your situation is changing, for example a renovation, a move or a switchboard you plan to replace anyway. Then it makes sense to plan the battery around that.